Nate Silver has brought his trademark data analysis to the newfound gun control discussion today, breaking down what gun ownership in this country looks like numerically. Using data from a 2008 national exit poll—the question was not included, he explains, on 2012 exit polls—some of the details in his chart will likely strike you as obvious: for instance, that Republicans own more guns than Democrats and that there are far more guns in rural areas. What might be more interesting, as Silver points out, is that gun ownership is not necessarily tied to being religiously devout, despite Presdident Obama’s 2008 suggestion about communities that “cling to guns or religion.” Also, the chart reveals that gun ownership is “highest among the middle class,” as Silver writes, with people making $50,000 to $100,000 per year more likely to own guns than their counterparts in other wage groups.
Let’s assume that Florida continues in the same direction and Obama wins it. With those 29 electoral votes, he’ll have 332 total. You’re going to hear a lot of praise for Nate Silver in the next couple of days; in fact, you’re probably already sick of hearing about him. Silver correctly predicted 332 based on states, although his model ended up at 313 votes. But he’s not the only one who really nailed it. See also:Sam Wang,Drew Linzer,Josh Putnam, and Markos Moulitsas. In fact, Linzer’s model has been hovering in that range for months!
Interestingly, the greatest number of predictions came just under that — guessing Obama would take between 290 and 309 votes.
The terms of the Scarborough’s bet with the impeccably moustachioed David Axelrod were: if Obama lost Minnesota, Michigan or Pennsylvania then David Axelrod would shave his moustache “of forty years” live on Morning Joe. But if Obama won Virginia or Florida then Scarborough would grow a moustache.